Probabilistic approach for conflict detection between two ROVs operating on trajectories at different depth levels

Abstract

This paper presents a probabilistic approach to estimate the collision risk between two ROVs operating on trajectories at different depth levels. For an analytically tractable formulation, a circular cylindrical boundary is considered as a safe separation zone around each ROV, and any violation of this safe zone is defined as a conflict. The conflict probability between two ROVs is then estimated over a prespecified time horizon, considering time-varying trajectory uncertainties. Specifically, for an efficient computation, the trajectory uncertainties in underwater environments are divided into horizontal and vertical uncertainties. In addition, the position uncertainty in the horizontal plane is defined as a multivariate Gaussian distribution and the depth uncertainty in the vertical direction is defined as a uniform distribution. Subsequently, the conflict probability is evaluated by multiplying the horizontal and vertical conflict probabilities that are evaluated from the divided uncertainties. Numerical simulations are performed to demonstrate the validity of the proposed approach.